Tuesday, January 29, 2008

McCain continues to ascend...

From the Iowa Electronic/Political Markets,
an update on the Republican presidential contest,
based on real money-- in essence, a futures market which models the market's assessment of the probability of a given candidate capturing the nomination...

McCain: 57; Romney: 33; rest of field: 10

If you're interested in the Dems, it's Hillary: 60; Obama: 40-- with Obama only getting a slight bump after his rousing SC victory.

Beyond the contemporary numbers, it is interesting to see how the numbers have moved over time among the six GOP candidates. Four of them were in the lead at one point in the race; Huckabee reached a high in the low-20s and even Paul broke into double-digits briefly.


At January 29, 2008 at 12:27 PM , Blogger Bryce Raley said...


MAC loses today- don't you think? Ronmey's win gets all the talking heads pontificating again.

Why have they written off Huckabee and Paul?

Huckabee has 40 delegates (2nd place) and leads in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma and is tied with McCain in Texas as of yesterday.

Paul has more money left than everyone but Romney. He has more or at least as much grassroots support as Huckabee. He has placed second or third in two states.

I can understand writing off Thompson, Hunter, and Tancredo. I can even understand writing off Giulianni after Florida due to lack of money, momentum and past performance. I can see Edwards being written off. He hasn't done well since Iowa. Finishes very low in all other states, including last in his home state.

Why has the establishment and media written off Huckabee and Paul?


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