Rothenberg says Baron does not want to face Hankins

From Lesley Stedman-Weidenbener in the C-J-- in her discussion of Baron Hill filing to run for "his" 9th District seat in May/November...

“We started this (campaign) cycle believing that Baron Hill was not significantly vulnerable and that Mike Sodrel – if he were to run again – would not pose a serious threat,” said Nathan Gonzalez, political editor of the national Rothenberg Political Report. “The national trend working against Democrats has brought this seat into play.”...

Gonzalez said he’s not sure it matters which wins the GOP nomination.

Regardless, Republicans will want the race to become “a referendum on Democrats in Washington and how people feel about the direction of country,” he said.

“In contrast, Democrats and Baron Hill want the election to be a choice between him and either Sodrel or Todd Young. They want to localize the election and that’s a race Baron Hill thinks he can win.”

I'm impressed. I thought that a national organization might underestimate a grass-roots-focused campaign like Hankins'.

Gonzalez still believes that an insider-- like Sodrel, Hill, or Young-- could win. But it's difficult to imagine a better year to be an outside-the-establishment candidate.

Gonzalez is also pointing to a basic principle in politics: politicians are risk-averse. In campaigns, they prefer circumstances where the variables have less variance. Sodrel offers little if any variance. Young, as a traditional, establishment candidate, is also relatively predictable from Baron's perspective.

But Hankins' approach to campaigning-- and the movement and principles he represents-- are less predictable. One can imagine a grass-roots campaign that fizzles and one can imagine a grass-roots campaign that catches fire. But knowing Travis and trying to interpret the times, I'd bet on the latter.

In any case, let's hope Baron has a lot of sleepless nights between now and November!