Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Hill elevates Libertarian Knott

In his most recent campaign effort (on the financial reform legislation that just passed), Rep. Baron Hill "challenged his main opponents...Libertarian Greg Knott and Republican Todd Young".

Apparently, Hill thinks he'll gain by strengthening Knott and pairing him with Young. This implies that he thinks Knott will take more votes from Young than from Hill-- and that Hill is not worried about Young and Knott combining to make Hill look worse than Young would do on his own.

I'm not at all sure about either supposition...

First, in my campaign for the 9th District, the data (and intuition) indicate that I took more support from Hill in 2006 (when the War in Iraq was a larger issue-- and Hill's avid support of the War left principled anti-war voters with no other choice) and split support between Hill and Sodrel in 2008 (with a campaign combining the war and working poor issues with pro-life and fiscal conservatism).

Likewise, Knott seems to be spending the bulk of his time in Bloomington-- one of Hill's strongholds-- and is running a balanced campaign that can appeal to Dems and Reps.

Second, on the issues where Young and Knott agree, Hill risks looking worse by having two people taking (eminently reasonable) at his positions.

It should be an interesting Summer and Fall as Hill tries to buck the tide and hold onto his seat in a difficult year for Democrats.



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