Friday, December 4, 2015

GOP primary prediction...

More and more, I'm liking my prediction of a Cruz-Rubio battle with a continuing Carson fade and Trump out of the race by Super Tuesday (or even Iowa). There's still room for Christie too (to move to the upper tier but not to win), but I'd say the odds are relatively long on that. (Paul is my favorite among those in this motley crew, but his odds have always been and continue to be far longer.) 

Carson continues to struggle from his lack of political chops-- which for better/worse will continue to dampen enthusiasm over his candidacy. In a similar manner, Trump will fade (although more slowly) or implode (if he ever crosses a threshold for what's perceived as crazy). In his case, I think he'll pull a good business move and sell relatively high-- not wanting to risk the high probability that he'll continue to fade and end up selling low. (He'll say that he's accomplished what the GOP race needed and/or he'll hold out the opportunity of an independent run later "if needed".) 

Of course, I should close by noting that it's been far more fun and interesting to see the irony of far-greater diversity in the GOP race-- vs. the dominance of sexism and corporatism over socialism and anti-war on the Democratic side. 


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