Fletcher's strategy: narrow and negative (so far)

excerpts from John David Dyche's op-ed piece in yesterday's C-J:


A respected pundit recently opined about Kentucky's gubernatorial campaign, "Now [Ernie] Fletcher is returning to his social conservative roots, the only campaign strategy that gives him a chance at winning." This comment may reflect the Republican governor's thinking, but are its premise and conclusion correct? Fletcher has made opposition to casino gambling the centerpiece of his reelection bid, but this hardly constitutes any socially conservative homecoming...

True, but since social conservatives are so easily pleased, he is probably doing enough to get their votes.


Abortion is the mother of all issues for social conservatives. Fletcher should be pushing for a law banning the procedure except in cases of rape, incest or saving the mother's life. This would highlight the contrast with his opponent, pro-choice Democrat Steve Beshear, and let Kentucky lead the way to re-examination of Roe v. Wade by the new Roberts-Alito Supreme Court.

This would certainly excite social conservatives, but is probably not necessary to gain their support...

But emphasizing social issues is not the only, or even best, way Fletcher can win. He should abandon his exclusive anti-casino advertising and offer an agenda of conservative economic and government reforms. Having impressively fulfilled most of the forward-looking policy proposals he ran on in 2003, Fletcher needs some positive new ideas now...Opposing casinos is clearly not enough for Fletcher to overcome Beshear's undeniable double-digit lead, built mainly on momentum from the merit system mess. Time is short. Fletcher must change course fast or face defeat this fall.

Fletcher is running a narrow and largely negative race. This is unfortunate in and of itself. But given his political baggage, this strategy is unlikely to result in a November victory. Unfortunately, positive ideas and campaigns are a political rarity these days. Can he buck the trend?

Republican candidates should always run on reducing taxes. The mainstream media yawned when Fletcher liberated almost a half-million less affluent Kentuckians from state income tax. He ought nonetheless now urge a stimulative state capital gains tax cut, whether across-the-board or targeted.

Isn't it amazing that Fletcher has gotten so little credit on this from so-called friends of the working poor and those in the lower-middle class? Kentucky goes from the butt of one of my policy jokes to a minimal player in the government's game of "pin the tail on the working poor". And what does he get for his efforts? Crickets chirping...Hello, C-J editorial board??