what will be the news "story" after Iowa?
Who wins? Who finishes second? More broadly, it will be those who exceed and are significantly below expectations. Has Huckabee peaked a month too early? Did Clinton peak two months too early? We'll see...
In any case, Matt Towery predicts a strong showing by Ron Paul in Iowa-- based on the date (weak) and the probable weather (more likely). He thinks turnover will be relatively low, benefitting candidates with the most fervent followers. Ron Paul is obviously #1 in that category. Huckabee is probably 2nd. If so, given their apparent overall levels of support, that would point to a Huckabee victory over Romney and Paul approaching 10% and perhaps beating many of the "first-tier" candidates.
I'm hopeful about Paul, but doubtful that he can make more than a modest splash. That said, 10% and getting more votes than first-tierers could make things much more interesting-- if not for Paul then for those he beats on January 3.