How do the Iowa caucuses work? The Iowa caucuses are different from primary elections, in which voters cast secret ballots at polls as they do in a general election. Caucus participants gather along party lines in 1,784 county precincts -- at a school, or even a home -- where they try to persuade fellow caucus-goers to support their candidate.
In a Republican caucus, participants can speak on behalf of candidates, after which votes are cast on blank ballots. Democrats gather in a corner of the room based on whom they support, so their decisions are public. Candidates who don't receive support from at least 15% of participants are "eliminated," but their supporters can realign with another group.
The article is not clear whether the 15% rule applies to both parties, but from Wikipedia's entry on this-- apparently, it is for the Dems only. Another difference, not made explicit by the WSJ article is that GOP votes are cast by secret ballot.
A final head count at the Jan. 3 gatherings will determine how county-level (not statewide) delegates will be apportioned. Neither party is nominating delegates for its national convention -- that requires several more steps that take months -- but caucus results have been regarded in the past as a bellwether for voter sentiment, giving winning candidates momentum and losing candidates more to prove going into later nominating contests.
How could those dynamics shape the vote? With no clear front-runner among the Democrats and Mike Huckabee showing a slight lead over Mitt Romney on the Republican side, the caucuses could hinge on turnout and on which candidates' supporters will be most persuasive in a crowd.
For Democrats, a voter's second choice can also play an important role because of the 15% rule. A poll taken this past week shows John Edwards is the second choice of 23% of Iowa Democrats, followed by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, with 18% saying he is their second choice, and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, with 16%. But 23% of likely Democratic voters say they have no second choice, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg survey.
It also will tend to lessen the prospects of Democratic minority candidates. If Biden et. al. are not able to muster 15% in many (if any) caucuses, they could be shut out-- despite having 5-10% of the vote. Beyond the practical implications of this, it's ironic that the Democrats are better known for protecting rights of minority groups-- and that their name is related to democracy rather than republic.
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