here's how Republican voters feel about their presidential candidates-- and my predictions
To generalize, I see three categories:
1.) Supporters of Ron Paul who are 99-100% excited-- because he is a man of principle, who excites people of similar principles.
2.) Most supporters of Mike Huckabee who are 95-100% excited-- because they are mostly/only interested in one or two "social conservative" issues, agree with him on those issues, and most important-- since the other candidates largely share those views too-- he best speaks/appeals to their language and culture. But if they knew more about him or cared about more than one or two issues, they'd choose someone else in a heartbeat.
3.) Supporters of other candidates who are 70-90% excited about their candidates-- and embrace them out of some combination of best available, perceived electability, comfort or not with those candidates who have changed positions over the last 2-20 years, perceived leadership qualities, emphasis on fiscal vs. foreign policy vs. domestic brands of conservatism, and so on.
My impression of the proportion of Republican voters in each category-- and my predictions:
1.) 10-25% of potential Ron Paul supporters
2&3.) 10-25% of potential Mike Huckabee supporters
3.) 50-80% of those who will pinch one nostril and choose between the other four major candidates.
Where does that leave us? Potential for Paul and Huckabee to make a splash-- and more likely, one of the other four to emerge from the Republican primaries.
Any thoughts on my categories or their proportions?
posted by Eric Schansberg @ 11:33 AM
12 Comments
12 Comments:
Well, Eric, presuming that it isn't out of bounds for a registered Democrat (though not particularly always voting that way) to wade in:
Much as I admire the vast majority of what Ron Paul has to say, I don't think he will make all that much of a showing.
Mike Huckabee - I agree 100% with your observations concerning what happens when people know more about him. Things like the saying he was pulling negative ads and them immediately showing them to the press says volumes....and if he was oblivious to the fact that the press wouldn't let their recordings of it out of the room his naivete certainly becomes an issue.
3. It will be one of the other four, unless Huckabee really surprises me. My bets would be on Mitt Romney (dah.....you can tell I am not much of a risk-taker). Thompson to cave and throw his support to Mitt. Rudy.....there are other states but he is fading fast. I'm spacing on who the fourth one is.....maybe that's why I'm a Democrat.
Then there is always the possibility of a last-minute Alan Keyes surge. Keys...Keys.....as in "to the Kingdom". Guess everybody left the room.
Ron Paul's 10 percent take in Iowa surprised me.
Romney has personality, looks good in a suit and would govern as King George III.
Rudy's 9-11 hero status is fading along with his support.
Not since Kennedy has the American public elected a candidate with more than two syllables in his last name. Huck'-uh-bee.
Thompson will get the crumudgeon vote, maybe more if conservatives wise up to Huck's and Romney's credentials.
My crystal ball draws a blank on McCain. That's a positive. No one knows where he stands on anything.
Hunter's been cut from Saturday's debate. His vote will be split among the other candidate if anyone can figure out how to split one vote.
Democrat:
Hillary - Looks too much like a chipmunk.
O'Bamma - Too Irish.
Edwards - Has the intelligence and charisma to win and actually govern. Shudder.
Richardson - No traction, no attraction.
Kucinich - Cut from the debate.
Gravel - Who?
Unfortunately, I worry that a good portion of Huckabee's support comes from people who could care less about his record/competence, or, frankly, anything other than abortion and homosexuality. I think how he fares in the primaries will be mainly a function of the turnout of that base. Identity politics mainly, with a mixture of an odd obsession with Chuck Norris.
eIndiana -- something gives me the opposite feeling about Edwards; that is, that he is the only one of the big three Dems that is incapable of governing. Probably doesn't matter though -- I think for the Dems it will be (effectively) a two horse race after NH.
Eric,
I agree with your observation about Huckabee. I was interested in him at first, but due to his view on the role of government (big), questionable tax history and complete lack of foreign policy experience, I can NOT vote for him. He strikes me a nothing more then a John Edwards (with his populist-speak) on the right (barely), differing with Edwards on only on a couple of social issues.
I know Libertarians are intrigued by Ron Paul, but his isolationist viewpoint in international affairs would leave a big vacuum for Russia and China to go ahead and fill. How does that help us? I appreciate his view of government and desire to dramatically overhaul how taxes are done, but he's in deep right-field on foreign policy. He is also facing the issue that some past news letters bearing his name had some pretty charged up comments in them (see link). Even though he may not have written them, simply having them distributed in his news letter tarnishes him. If he were more of a serious candidate, this would sink him.
How about the rest of the field?
Rudy Giuliani – A social-liberal that really will have a hard time appealing to the true conservative base. Also, poor on illegal immigration.
Mitt Romney – Recently flopped (at least in the right direction) on abortion, no foreign policy experience. Is he elect-able?
Fred Thompson – Who? He is too late to the game, not a viable candidate. One term in the senate (I believe), is not enough.
John McCain – Solid experience in the government, and I agree with his views on the war on terror. Poor track record for dealing with illegal immigration (amnesty – when everyone, Democrats and Republicans alike were against it). Also, crosses aisle on the wrong issues, McCain-Feingold finance reform, and attempt at passing legislation to make it impossible for grassroots organizations like AFA alert members to pending issues.
Why isn’t there a social AND (true) fiscal conservative that correctly sees the threat that Islamic fascism poses to our country…
Good stuff Keith!
Excluding Ron Paul, I think Thompson is the best candidate, but he doesn't seem to want it that badly-- ironically, a trait I find appealing!
I think Paul sees the (or a) threat from Islamic fascism, but he also recognizes the unintended consequences of our efforts to intervene in the Middle East-- and ascribes great weight to those consequences. If one takes at least Giuliani literally, he ascribes no weight to that-- which is simply incoherent in my view. I was more ambivalent on this matter until I read Robert Pape's "Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism".
Other than Fox News and establishment Republicans hating Huckabee, why does the rest of conservatism dislike him so much.
We've sent a bunch of fiscal conservatives to Washington in the last 20 years. What have we gained?
Ronald Reagan was a big taxer before his run in 80. He also was soft on immigration. He also had very little foreign policy experience.
I like Fred Thompson, but I think he another conservative from Washington. What change will he make? He has little energy.
I like Ron Paul on economics but that's about it. He does raise some great questions, but he also simplifies some of the most complex issues in foreign affairs with a look the other way attitude. The main purpose of government is to protect our freedoms and provide defense. His attitude is far too laid back for my liking.
McCain seems to be authentic and strong on defense.
Here is my logic. We send people to Washington who spend money like crazy. They typically get poor results in policy change along with the big spending. If we are going to to keep with this cycle I am voting for a change agent.
Huckabee has a good track record on change.
Arkansas schools from 49 to 8th I believe these are acurate.
Arkansas roads from some of the worst to ranked as best by Trucker magazine.
Balanced Budget and he left office with a 850 million dollar surplus.
His recommendation for a tax rebate check to all citizens of Arkansas.
I look at what people do much more than what they say. (reminds me of Francis Assisi quote "preach the gospel at all times if neccessary use words)
Huckabee is won Iowa and is winning in South Carolina and some National polls with a grassroots effort, very little capital and a very frugal spending plan. They have not spent all there campaign money and have not borrowed to finance this run.
Most of Huckabee's tax increases were voted on (such as the gas and cigarette taxes) The sales tax increase may have been a lead into his fair tax ideas.
He did pass the first major tax cut in Arkansas in 160 years with a 86% democratic congress.
He cut capital gains, eliminated marriage penalty and doubled the child tax credit.
He has now signed the pledge to not raise taxes as President and he supported the Bush tax cuts.
If I only listened to Fox News, Laura Ingram, Rush, Ann Coulter, Peggy Noonan, Townhall.com and Hannity then I would totally agree that Huckabee has a big tax, big spend record. They are all in the bag for Romney and Guiliani.
Like I said I would support Fred Thompson and did before Huckabee's decision to run. I also would support someone like Alan Keyes or a Libertarian who wasn't totally unrealistic about the war on terror.
Sorry for the bad grammar and mispellings. My computer battery was going dead and I didn't have a chance to edit.
A bunch of replies:
I hadn't heard the road or budget/tax news and can't begin to imagine the education rankings!
What's wrong with Huckabee?
-a very mixed record &/or has "flip-flopped" on taxes and illegal immigration
-no national defense experience; naivete and apparent lack of knowledge in that area
-his dealings with prisoners as governor
-wants a federal smoking policy and more federal influence in education
-not interested in educational choice; endorsed by the NEA in NH
-playing games with Romney's religious beliefs and wealth and (class warfare usually reserved for Edwards and the Dems)
-I'm not excited about the way he's using Christianity to promote his campaign
--> In a word, I don't trust his style and I don't like a lot of his
substance (past &/or present).
We've only sent a handful of fiscal conservatives to Washington and they've rarely had much sway. When Reagan had clout, he was dealing with a Democratic Congress. When the Republicans controlled Congress, they were most fiscally conservative early-on-- perhaps not coincidentally, when they had to deal with a Democratic president. Since then, along with Bush, they've been mostly a mess.
I'm quite sympathetic to Paul's foreign policy views, especially after reading Robert Pape's book, Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. (He's a political science professor at the U. of Chicago.) I'll blog on this at length soon. For now, you can check out my earlier posting in the May archive of my campaign blog: http://schansbergforcongress.blogspot.com/
2007/05/guiliani-vs-paul-and-two-theories-on.html
I agree with you that some radio talk show hosts have been in the pocket of Romney (Hewitt big-time) and McCain (Medved). Ingraham values conservatism over electing Republicans. Bennett is not endorsing anyone but has made it clear that he does think Huckabee is a reasonable candidate. I don't listen to Rush but would be surprised if he's endorsed anyone.
The budget news is rhetoric from his own campaign. No one has refuted the balancing the budget and the departure with a very large surplus. The roads are ranked in a recent subsciption of Trucker magazine. The education news was released early this week. I'd have to verify the source. I agree that statistics are dangerous business. I will defer to you since this is one of your areas of expertise.
Some of the things you've mentioned do bother me and others don't.
The prison issue hasn't bothered me, due to Arkansas policies and the experience I've had with prison ministry at Southeast. I lead the Seekers Softball prison ministry at Southeast and I have 4 years experience ministering in the prison system in Kentucky and Tennessee.
Arkansas has a policy where every prisoner can request pardons/commutations. Huckabee denied 90% of them over his 11 years. Most of the ones he granted were for issues like hot checks, and charges against minors ( I had a friend who could not get into the financial services industry until his record was expunged- his record had a charge for shoplifting a pack of gum from a Walgreens at age 15). The Wayne Dumond commutation was intiated by Bill Clinton in 1992 and then pushed forward by Jim Guy Tucker, after Tucker was convicted of felony charges, Huckabee takes over and denies the further commutation. The parole board later grants parole and everything gets blamed on Huckabee. The story is that he pressured an entire parole board composed of Clinton and Tucker appointees (democrats). It would take a great deal of faith to believe that.
As a Christian and a conservative I believe in capital punishment when neccesary but I also have personally seen men reformed in the prison system. It doesn't seem like his pardons were for white collar business men or political criminals like the pardons of most governors and presidents.
He carried out the death penalty 15 times as governor. Something no one else running for President has done.
I tend to agree about the foreign policy experience. The other thing that comforts me is the job Reagan did with the same label. He claims he is very well traveled, which he has visited most of the countries we're dealing with at this point- how this translates into experience is a weak argument. I think he is a leader who can cast a vision, but will rely heavily on those who have the experience. President Bush and President Clinton had little foreign experience in there governorships.
Maybe they aren't the best example though.
I do not his the position on smoking. I do not like government bans even on things to which I object.
I like his energy and personal story on weight loss but I would not want any mandates. I don't like his ban of soft drinks in public schools. I concur.
I do like his emphasis on prevention and incentives for prevention. I read a lot of Paul Zane Pilzers writing on Health Care and the ecnomics of the food industry the drug industry and the health care industry. It's scary stuff. We have a sickness industry- the word health should be omitted.
I don't like his opposition to school choice, but I'm OK with his support of homeschoolers and they are backing him stongly. He was interviewed recently and stated that homeschoolers overall get superior results and need to be left alone. The state and federal government should leave them alone and focus on fixing issues in the public school system.
Agree on the Romney comment. Bad deision even if it was a little out of context. If you and I were talking off the record about Jehovahs witness and I said, don't they believe that only 144,000 people are going to live in a heaven on earth one day. I would be looking for a clarification to a fact I thought to be true. You and I can afford to do this, however, a man running for President doesn't have that luxury and probably shouldn't. He can't get elected without the conservative Mormom vote- that's the insanity in it.
The thing I didn't like about the way the media handled it, was the fact that they acted as if this was a shot at Mormonism, when it actually is a belief that Jesus was the spirit brother of Satan.
It's neither here nor there but it's funny that no one verified the doctrine.
I was refreshed the other night when he answered the question about wives submitting to their husbands with boldness, but he put it into perpective that it shouldn't be an issue "what his doctrine espouses".
To his defense everyone is asking him all the religous questons at every turn.
I have been very dissapointed with the lost opportunities in Washington over the last 8 years. We could have made some inroads into the simplification and reduction of government and spending. It's disheartening.
I don't know enough about Paul's experience. Only what I've listened to him relay in the debates. Debates are not a good way to learn his position on foreign policy. I will look forward to your blog.
As far as the media folks. I agree.
Medved-McCain
Hewitt-Romney
Ingram-Romney
Poulter-Hunter/Keyes ( I like both but she is starting to enjoy hearing herself way too much)
Rush- Is just mad about the lack of a true conservative- he likes Thompson best.
I grew up Catholic and was baptized and accepted Christ as my personal Lord and Savior at Southeast in 2002.
I know the catholic tradition well and Ingram like many people I know want a culture that embraces socially conservative values, but they don't want to be sold out to it. You've mentioned before, I believe, that without Christ as our Lord this is impossible. We cannot make social changes through government. I believe we can protect freedoms however, and that is a concern of mine at this point.
I don't have many places to discuss politics as it applies to my Christian worldview. Your blog has given me an outlet for that. Thanks for challenging my beliefs, I think we must keep an open mind about such things.
The budget news is rhetoric from his own campaign. No one has refuted the balancing the budget and the departure with a very large surplus. The roads are ranked in a recent subsciption of Trucker magazine. The education news was released early this week. I'd have to verify the source. I agree that statistics are dangerous business. I will defer to you since this is one of your areas of expertise.
Some of the things you've mentioned do bother me and others don't.
The prison issue hasn't bothered me, due to Arkansas policies and the experience I've had with prison ministry at Southeast. I lead the Seekers Softball prison ministry at Southeast and I have 4 years experience ministering in the prison system in Kentucky and Tennessee.
Arkansas has a policy where every prisoner can request pardons/commutations. Huckabee denied 90% of them over his 11 years. Most of the ones he granted were for issues like hot checks, and charges against minors ( I had a friend who could not get into the financial services industry until his record was expunged- his record had a charge for shoplifting a pack of gum from a Walgreens at age 15). The Wayne Dumond commutation was intiated by Bill Clinton in 1992 and then pushed forward by Jim Guy Tucker, after Tucker was convicted of felony charges, Huckabee takes over and denies the further commutation. The parole board later grants parole and everything gets blamed on Huckabee. The story is that he pressured an entire parole board composed of Clinton and Tucker appointees (democrats). It would take a great deal of faith to believe that.
As a Christian and a conservative I believe in capital punishment when neccesary but I also have personally seen men reformed in the prison system. It doesn't seem like his pardons were for white collar business men or political criminals like the pardons of most governors and presidents.
He carried out the death penalty 15 times as governor. Something no one else running for President has done.
I tend to agree about the foreign policy experience. The other thing that comforts me is the job Reagan did with the same label. He claims he is very well traveled, which he has visited most of the countries we're dealing with at this point- how this translates into experience is a weak argument. I think he is a leader who can cast a vision, but will rely heavily on those who have the experience. President Bush and President Clinton had little foreign experience in there governorships.
Maybe they aren't the best example though.
I do not his the position on smoking. I do not like government bans even on things to which I object.
I like his energy and personal story on weight loss but I would not want any mandates. I don't like his ban of soft drinks in public schools. I concur.
I do like his emphasis on prevention and incentives for prevention. I read a lot of Paul Zane Pilzers writing on Health Care and the ecnomics of the food industry the drug industry and the health care industry. It's scary stuff. We have a sickness industry- the word health should be omitted.
I don't like his opposition to school choice, but I'm OK with his support of homeschoolers and they are backing him stongly. He was interviewed recently and stated that homeschoolers overall get superior results and need to be left alone. The state and federal government should leave them alone and focus on fixing issues in the public school system.
Agree on the Romney comment. Bad deision even if it was a little out of context. If you and I were talking off the record about Jehovahs witness and I said, don't they believe that only 144,000 people are going to live in a heaven on earth one day. I would be looking for a clarification to a fact I thought to be true. You and I can afford to do this, however, a man running for President doesn't have that luxury and probably shouldn't. He can't get elected without the conservative Mormom vote- that's the insanity in it.
The thing I didn't like about the way the media handled it, was the fact that they acted as if this was a shot at Mormonism, when it actually is a belief that Jesus was the spirit brother of Satan.
It's neither here nor there but it's funny that no one verified the doctrine.
I was refreshed the other night when he answered the question about wives submitting to their husbands with boldness, but he put it into perpective that it shouldn't be an issue "what his doctrine espouses".
To his defense everyone is asking him all the religous questons at every turn.
I have been very dissapointed with the lost opportunities in Washington over the last 8 years. We could have made some inroads into the simplification and reduction of government and spending. It's disheartening.
I don't know enough about Paul's experience. Only what I've listened to him relay in the debates. Debates are not a good way to learn his position on foreign policy. I will look forward to your blog.
As far as the media folks. I agree.
Medved-McCain
Hewitt-Romney
Ingram-Romney
Poulter-Hunter/Keyes ( I like both but she is starting to enjoy hearing herself way too much)
Rush- Is just mad about the lack of a true conservative- he likes Thompson best.
I grew up Catholic and was baptized and accepted Christ as my personal Lord and Savior at Southeast in 2002.
I know the catholic tradition well and Ingram like many people I know want a culture that embraces socially conservative values, but they don't want to be sold out to it. You've mentioned before, I believe, that without Christ as our Lord this is impossible. We cannot make social changes through government. I believe we can protect freedoms however, and that is a concern of mine at this point.
I don't have many places to discuss politics as it applies to my Christian worldview. Your blog has given me an outlet for that. Thanks for challenging my beliefs, I think we must keep an open mind about such things.
Glad to be here/there for you! ;-)
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