Howey on illegal immigration and the Republicans

"If the Republicans aren’t careful, they are going to become the Whigs of the 21st Century."-- Brian Howey

Howey quotes himself to Mike Pence on a discussion on immigration-- and then starts into his prescient essay.

What was striking about my audacious quote was that Pence could only chuckle a bit and wince. It wasn't a notion he could contest. And then he told me about the various town hall events he had done since he and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison had tried to forge a national compromise in 2006. They advocated illegal immigrants returning to their countries of origin, then reporting to "Ellis Island Centers" where they could be processed, given U.S. work permits, sign pledges to learn English and attain citizenship, and pay a fine for breaking U.S. laws....

For this, Pence was branded by people like U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo as caving in to "amnesty." The whole thing crashed, there was no compromise, and that created the kind of xenophobic presentations that then Indiana Congressman John Hostettler did in the summer of 2006. Pence said Tancredo and others warned him that he would face the wrath of voters. Last I looked, Pence won comfortably in 2006 by more than 38,000 votes. He said he went to numerous town hall settings in Indiana’s conservative 6th CD and found most people simply wanting a solution. Meanwhile, U.S. Reps. Hostettler, Mike Sodrel and Chris Chocola, the latter of whom participated in Hostettler’s show hearings, all went down to defeat. Most of that was attributed to the Iraq War, but I suspect that some of their intolerance impacted voters, particularly swing independents and moderate Republicans who are fed up with the various phobias that take aim at Latinos, gays and, I suppose, Rudolph the Rednosed Reindeer....

When we conducted the first Howey-Gauge Poll on Feb. 17-18, a number that didn’t exist jumped out at me. In an open ended question as to what the top issues are, immigration didn’t even make the list. Other polls I’ve seen have immigration far, far down on the priority list if at all. A vast majority of Americans simply want the federal government to do its job, protect the borders and help the 14 million to 20 million Latinos already here to assimilate into American society. They don’t want, as Hostettler said during the 2006 immigration rallies, millions of Latino workers thrown into county jails and deported.

Illegal immigration obviously matters a lot to some people-- but it does not rise as a general "top five" issue. So, it should be addressed as an important public policy issue. And it must be addressed politically-- to deal with the concerns of a "special interest group".

From there, Howey paints a bleak picture for Republicans given future ethnic demographics...

Republicans like Tancredo, Hostettler and Delph are in the process of digging a deep hole for the Republican Party....The GOP is becoming a party mostly of middle-aged white guys....

Now here’s where the 21st Century Whig thing comes into play. The Pew Hispanic Center notes that 57 percent of registered voters now call themselves Democrats, while just 23 percent call themselves Republicans. There is now a 34 percent gap in partisan affiliation among Latinos...

Illegal immigration is a tough issue. As those who value "rule-of-law", Republicans are torn between that allegiance and a political desire to have a "bigger tent". On top of that, many Republicans are torn by a pro-business mindset that makes tougher enforcement against illegals more problematic-- as they are often unwilling to prosecute (or at least unexcited about prosecuting) the laws against businesses hiring illegals. (See: the many GOP votes against the Sullivan Amendment in the last Congress.)