Tuesday, March 4, 2008

trade, trade, go away-- come back some other day?

From Kimberly Strassel in the WSJ, more on Obama, Clinton and increasing sentiment for trade protectionism...

At an event Monday at George Washington University, a moderator asked four House Democrats if any thought it "practical" or a "good idea" to reopen and renegotiate Nafta. The crew, led by Democratic Caucus head Rahm Emanuel, stared uneasily into the middle distance before submitting "no."

"We'll see if word gets to Ohio," joked the moderator.

It didn't, and that's got some grown-ups in the party nervous. Democrats have been flirting with outright protectionism for some time now -- taking a dip with the "fair trade" movement, cozying up to labor and environmental standards, and shunning trade deals in Congress. It's been a tease, though careful not to let things go too far.

Now they're cornered with the heavy-breathing Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and some are worried about their reputation. The two presidential nominees, grasping for votes in economically depressed Ohio, are setting new protectionist lows, with calls for trade "time outs" and threats to overthrow Nafta. It's come at a crucial moment for the Democratic Party, which after years of trade wandering now has a shot at defining the issue from the White House....

Democrats do know better, and have for a long time. It was Cordell Hull, FDR's secretary of state, who picked up Hoover's pieces and rebuilt the world trade system in the 1930s. Graduates of the party's old free-trade school know America has a responsibility to lead an open, global market. They know the nation's economic prosperity depends on it. They know isolationism doesn't sell well in elections. And they know the bipartisan trade successes of the Clinton years were a boon for both sides.

That common sense hasn't matched the temptation to win points with Big Labor or to ride a populist anti-trade wave. Threats to hold trade deals hostage to labor and environmental rules; vows to review existing deals; the bashing of Mexican truck drivers; the mauling of the Chinese currency; complaints about trade enforcement -- all of these are today standard Democratic (and increasingly Republican) talking points. The Clinton-Obama threats are a logical conclusion of this, not some surprising beginning.

And yet free-trade Democrats point out that the stakes are arguably higher now than they've ever been, not just for the nation, but for their own party's long-term electoral prospects....

If Democrats wanted be trusted on national security, they've got to underpin their promises with a commitment to trade....

Other Democrats are likewise worried this bout of anti-trade fervor risks undercutting the party's key foreign policy plank: that it will do more on the diplomatic front....It's hard to make nicey-nice with the global community when you are stiffing it on trade....

There is, too, the question of Democratic economic leadership....[I]t might be tempting to demagogue trade in the short term, Democrats will have to perform on the economy if they want a lasting run in office....

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