a much more trivial problem in Washington DC

With all of the shenanigans of President Bush and his Congresses, let's look at another problem in Washington: it's poorly-performing baseball team and its relatively few fans.

When I was an undergrad taking econometrics, my project was on the best city for an expansion baseball team. Living in DC, even back then, people clamored for a baseball team. But the owner of the Orioles was able to fend it off-- since it would have competed with his own team to a modest but significant extent.

Many people assumed Washington would be successful as a baseball city, but I wasn't so sure. As I looked at the DC fan base, there are a lot transients (difficult to build up a fan base) and they seem to value success inordinately (fair weather fans). They're also disproportionately busy and self-important-- not something that lends itself to liking baseball or attending games. And then there's the history, losing two teams to other cities back in the day.

My regression analysis indicated that DC would be tied for the third-best location, behind New Orleans, Miami, and tied with Vancouver (if I remember correctly). Looking back, I have no idea if my work was competent or not. But at the time, the results lined up with my intuition.

Fast forward two decades. Washington was able to get its own franchise-- and then it build a new stadium. New franchises and new stadia tend to boost numbers, but the Nationals have struggled in terms of victories and attendance.

Here's a recent article on the stats from the AP (hat tip: C-J)...

Four seasons into baseball's return to the nation's capital, a resounding question hangs in the air: Where are the Washington Nationals' fans?

The average attendance of 29,025 for the inaugural season at Nationals Park ranks among the bottom third of major league clubs-- and is the worst in 26 years for an existing team at a first-year ballpark.

The local TV ratings, about 8,000 households per game according to Nielsen, are so low that Major League Baseball said Friday it is "surprised and disappointed."...

Washington drew an average of 33,728 spectators at RFK Stadium in 2005, when the Montreal Expos moved south and brought the sport to D.C. after an absence of more than three decades.

Attendance dropped to 26,581 in Year 2, then 24,217 in Year 3, the team's last at creaky, old RFK.

Gleaming $611 million Nationals Park was supposed to attract spectators, following the boost received by 17 other existing teams that moved into new stadiums over the past quarter-century. But not since the 1982 Minnesota Twins averaged a tad above 11,000 in the Metrodome has a club been greeted less warmly at its new address day after day.

Only eight games...drew more than the NL average of about 34,000 spectators. Many of the 41,888 seats were empty night after night....

Attendance has historically been a problem for major league clubs in Washington and played a key role when the city lost teams after the 1960 and 1971 seasons.

Kasten scoffed at the notion that Washington is not a baseball town.

"There's also a history of the British taxing us. You're talking about ancient history, you know? There's just no relation between the '30s and '40s and '50s and '60s with where we are today _ a powerful, mega-market, I think, that could easily sell out stadiums here and Baltimore for a whole season when the products merit it," Kasten said....