Teflon

I was just planning to blog on the Teflonicity of Obama and past presidents-- when I ran into this intro from Larry Elder's essay today in Jewish World Review on Obama as Teflon...

"How long do you think it will take for the press to turn on Obama?" a friend asked.

"Eight years, if he's in that long," I told him. "Doesn't matter what happens. Either they'll blame Bush or 'circumstances beyond Obama's control' while writing articles about how heroically Obama handles them." It's already started....

Teflon coating-- or lack thereof-- seems to be a function of "likability". Obama starts off with an amazing amount of likability capital (LC) in the proverbial bank. He'll almost certainly maintain that, given the historical nature of his campaign and presidency, his inheritance of the office under trying circumstances, his eloquence, intelligence, charisma, etc. The media and many in the public are enraptured by him. Beyond that, he seems like a likeable sort.

Other presidents have featured significant amounts of LC: Clinton, Reagan, and JFK. Carter probably had some LC. Bush had a lot early on and then lost it in spades. Others were lacking: Bush the Elder, Nixon, Johnson. Of course, LC might be a function of policy choices-- or perceptions of how well the country was doing in those times. But beyond policy and current events, likability seems to matter.

Of course, LC is important to have just to get elected. Perhaps the Presidential election is typically more popularity contest than not, more like a high school election for Student Body president. Obama had more LC than McCain. Dole, Dukakis, and Mondale were opposing popular presidents but rated low on the LC scale. And what about Kerry and Gore-- two guys who should have won, but tanked on LC?

A final tangent: I wonder about the extent to which this holds in professional sports as well. I've never understood the response to Barry Bonds and steroids. But I think it probably reduces largely to likability.

One more (practical) reason to be nice to other people...