push-polling AND be careful what you wish for OR alternative conspiracy theories

Hoosier Pundit has an interesting theory about the recent claims of push polling in the 9th District. The speculation first centered on Mike Sodrel and then moved tentatively to Travis Hankins. HP suggests the intriguing possibility that Baron Hill might be behind it, imagining that Hankins would be the easiest GOP'er to face in November.

A few thoughts on that:

1.) I don't think so, but if so, Baron should be careful what he wishes for. This wouldn't seem to be the year to mess with a "Tea Party" candidate. Todd Young is Tea Party-ish and Mike Sodrel would get a lot of tepid Tea Party votes. But a Hankins campaign would win the traditional GOP base as well as firing up the non-base Tea Party voters in the rural parts of the district who can vote either way.

2a.) On who Baron prefers to face, my bet would be on Sodrel. Politicians prefer known quantities and Baron knows what he gets with Sodrel. Baron also knows he's beaten Sodrel three times, including the last time when he treated Sodrel like the proverbial rented mule (beating him by 20%). This year, incumbents will be at a disadvantage-- and having a former incumbent running lessens or eliminates that angle. Sodrel has a propensity for running bad campaigns-- or so his supporters say-- so the likelihood of another "bad campaign" is quite strong.

2b.) If Baron thinks like HP, then he might predict that Hankins is not as much of a threat as Young-- the other "new blood". If so, Baron would be least excited about facing Young (and then narrowly, Hankins) in November.

3.) Running with HP's conspiratorial thinking, Sodrel's camp could have done the push polling. Have a few calls placed with negative references to himself and/or positive references to Hankins-- and voila, you damage the upstart Hankins campaign and avoid blame for the bulk of your push polling effort against Young. (A similar and more likely scenario would be to have a handful of Sodrel supporters make false claims about push polling calls.) All of this seems unlikely. But I know of at least one similar angle-- from Sodrel supporters toward Hankins supporters, involving me. So, only the shadow knows...