Thanks for coming! I plan to post a lot of interesting articles and comment on a wide range of things-- from political to religious, from private to public, from formal writing on public policy to snippets on random observations.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
predictions on tonight
Predictions on larger races: Todd Young by 4%; Rand Paul by 12; Hal Heiner by 5.
Most important/interesting local question of the evening: Will Bob Isgrigg win as a Libertarian?
One factor that got little play: geography-- that Young and Knott both had ties in Bloomington, where Hill has been amazingly strong in previous elections.
Knott outdid my results, focusing his efforts in Bloomington. I suspect that Young ate into Hill's base in Bloomington as well.
I hope someone does a good post-mortem to explain why the Young/Hill margin was so big and why the predictions were so far off in that race.
ReplyDeleteI underestimated Young again!
ReplyDeleteOne factor that got little play: geography-- that Young and Knott both had ties in Bloomington, where Hill has been amazingly strong in previous elections.
Knott outdid my results, focusing his efforts in Bloomington. I suspect that Young ate into Hill's base in Bloomington as well.