thoughts on the election

I’m not a fan of either Trump or Harris — and whoever won, I had big worries about the country’s future, especially on government spending and debt. But I was thankful for a decisive outcome on Tuesday. I prayed for a large enough victory to avoid inflaming at least one set of partisans — and to give a better opportunity for the losers to reconsider their approach in the future.  

To the GOP: Congratulations! You got what you wanted short-term. But now, it's more likely that you'll lose in 2026 and 2028. Trump is a lame duck and will be a mishmash on policy, so I'd lower your expectations. You might hope for a vigorous debate between your various factions: the populists, small-L libertarians, fiscal conservatives and social conservatives. But your future is now more likely to be populist until current events or a charismatic candidate pushes you somewhere else. 

Did Trump get a “mandate” with his victory? The surprising win in the popular vote certainly points that direction. But a mandate on what? Going a different direction? Sure. But specifically? Inflation is already under control (unless Trump’s spending and tariffs bring it back). Immigration? That’s easy to reduce going forward. But what to do with those already here? Good luck getting the toothpaste back in the tube.

To the Dems: It can be hoped that your fears of Trump and “democracy” will not be validated. The good news is that you can start over, shedding Hillary, Biden and Harris. What's the future of your party? Get ready for blame-shifting between the power-brokers, the Progressives, and the Identity Politics folks. And who's on your bench? Maybe Biden and Harris really were your best (ouch). Since you've ironically had only one robust and fair democratic primary since 2008, it's difficult to know. But a handful of governors or a smooth speaker will probably emerge for 2028.  

On election night, there was statistical analysis claiming that "Harris under-performed Biden." But Harris was largely a proxy for Biden’s administration. Really, it was the Biden record that was under-performing. Biden was largely ineffective as president — and painfully so, on inflation, immigration and international issues. And then Harris and others gaslighted those who were concerned about Biden’s mental competence. 

Related: the vote was not anti-woman, but a referendum on Biden and Harris. She was dealt a bad hand, ran a middling campaign, and looked unimpressive along the way. Even though Trump is a hot mess, he was able to soundly beat the bigger mess on the other side. Pick better people next time and do better when you're in charge. 

Harris was chosen in 2020 explicitly because of her race and gender. A necessary problem with “DEI” and “Affirmative Action” is the reality or at least the perception that one is not (as) qualified. Given this, it was that much more important to see competence or ideally, excellence. Unfortunately, that was not the case this time. 

While I was watching election returns, I bounced through the four legacy networks. (I forgot to check out CNN or MSNBC.) I was pleasantly surprised that they were somewhere between balanced and friendly with Trump. The mainstream media has shredded its credibility in the last decade. Was this an effort to rehabilitate their reputation? Did they have inside information, despite supposedly-even polling data—a strong sense that Trump was going to win?

Trump’s election elicited everything from fear and anger to relief and messianic expectations. For all of us, this is an opportunity to take stock of our faith in (and potentially idolatry toward) politics and government. Politics and public policy matter, but they often disappoint. In particular, a suggestion for the most passionate Trump supporters and the most fearful anti-Trumpers: Write down what you think will/could happen over the next year or throughout Trump’s term — and save it to read in the future. It'll be helpful for you as you reassess your beliefs down the road.

Finally, one of the most unfortunate things about democracy: many people imagine that 51 percent jamming their preferred vision of society down the throats of the other 49 percent is somehow glorious. For one thing, 51-49 is not impressive. For another, whoever wins, it's generally better to leave it out of government's hands when you can. To use a silly example, we wouldn't want pizza toppings decided by majority rule; we leave it to the market. Sure, use democracy when you must. But promote choice, competition and decentralization of government to the state and local level — and leave it to markets and personal decisions — as much as possible.

message to partisans and a prayer before the election results

If Harris wins...

To the Dems: Congrats! You saved democracy. (Ahh, just kidding; you've been demagoguing it! But with Trump gone, maybe you won't feel like you have to do that anymore? Please? Please?!) You tried to give us Trump, but we appreciate you doing enough to avoid that. You got what you want short-term, but now it's more likely that you'll lose in 2026 and 2028. Harris will probably move to the middle, so it'll be interesting to see how much this upsets the Progressives and Identity Politics folks. 

To the GOP: Thanks for giving us Biden and now Harris. Just imagine how DeSantis or Haley would have crushed either one of them! Hopefully, your fears of her and the elites will not be validated. The good news is that you can shed the Trump baggage and have a vigorous debate between the big-govt populists (since the Dems have given up on the working poor and middle class) and your other factions (small-L libertarians, fiscal conservatives, social conservatives). Hopefully, from your relatively deep bench, someone will emerge as a Reagan-like leader for 2028. 

If Trump wins...

To the GOP: Congrats! By choosing Trump, you took a big risk that we would get Harris, but we appreciate you doing enough to avoid the latter. You got what you want short-term, but now, it's more likely that you'll lose in 2026 and 2028. Trump is a lame duck and will be a mishmash on policy, so I'd start lowering expectations ASAP. You might hope for a vigorous debate between your various factions, but your future is now more likely to be populist until current events or a charismatic candidate push you somewhere else. 

To the Dems: Thanks for choosing poor candidates who governed and campaigned poorly, resulting in Trump. Hopefully, your fears of him will not be validated. The good news is that you can start over, shedding Hillary, Biden, and Harris. What's the future of your party? Get ready for some blame-shifting between the power-mongers and the Progressives. And who's on your bench? Maybe Biden and Harris really were your best. (Ouch!) Since you've (ironically) had only one robust and fair democratic primary since 2008, it's difficult to know. But a handful of governors or a smooth/dynamic speaker will probably entice you for 2028. 

Either way: I'm praying/hoping for a split Congress/President result and a large enough victory by the new president to avoid inflaming existing idolatries and to give partisans on one of the two sides to mitigate, eliminate idolatries going forward.