Wednesday, January 7, 2026

doing good policy analysis

Often, people settle for pursuing good outcomes (well, at least if simplistic analysis holds)-- and thus, the means of govt force are sufficient to justify the ends. 
For example...
-Is it moral/ethical/biblical to take money from a household earning $80K per year-- or undemocratically, from future households earning $80K per year-- to pay off the loans of other people for college?  
-Is it moral/ethical/biblical to use the force of govt on my neighbor smoking weed? 
-Is it moral/ethical/biblical to kidnap Maduro and replace his government? 

And then there are the practical angles to consider: 
-What are the long-term implications of bailing out people (and/or corporations) for bad decisions-- as if they're "too big/small to fail"? Can I clamor about democracy if I use EO's and debt to implement these policies? 
-What are the consequences of prohibition for 3rd world countries, inner-city youth, etc.? Does it make sense for marijuana to be illegal while cigs and alcohol are legal (and kill 100K's per year each)?
-What will replace his govt in Venezuela? Does this encourage/discourage Chinese shenanigans with Taiwan? How does this align with Ukraine/Russia, Gaza/Israel, etc.? 

Inability to do this level of analysis means that you're average (i.e. not good) at policy analysis. And that's ok; it's a common part of rational ignorance. (Just don't combine it with dogmatism and descend into irrational ignorance.) Unwillingness to do it consistently is a strong sign of unfortunate and unimpressive partisan or ideological bias. 

on the "economics of prayer"

Trip Lee did a really nice job with ask/seek/knock (from Mt 7) and what generosity looks like from a good/great God. His discussion on Jesus' analogy of God as parent was most helpful to me-- that God often gives us what's best for us (and others), instead of what (we think) we want. 

It got me thinking about the "economics of prayer": For one thing, prayer changes our hearts, particularly when those prayers are "help, sorry, and thanks". On "answers to prayer", all prayers are (probably) heard, but not as likely to be answered "yes" when they... 
-create "negative externalities" (damage-- e.g., pollution) for others 
-are zero-sum (e.g., get a certain job or my team wins) 
-are based on highly-imperfect info or "irrationality" (an inability to weigh benefits/costs well)-- e.g., all-day TV and Sour Patch Kids