Monday, December 10, 2007

what will be the news "story" after Iowa?

Who wins? Who finishes second? More broadly, it will be those who exceed and are significantly below expectations. Has Huckabee peaked a month too early? Did Clinton peak two months too early? We'll see...

In any case, Matt Towery predicts a strong showing by Ron Paul in Iowa-- based on the date (weak) and the probable weather (more likely). He thinks turnover will be relatively low, benefitting candidates with the most fervent followers. Ron Paul is obviously #1 in that category. Huckabee is probably 2nd. If so, given their apparent overall levels of support, that would point to a Huckabee victory over Romney and Paul approaching 10% and perhaps beating many of the "first-tier" candidates.

I'm hopeful about Paul, but doubtful that he can make more than a modest splash. That said, 10% and getting more votes than first-tierers could make things much more interesting-- if not for Paul then for those he beats on January 3.


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