Thursday, April 29, 2010

push-polling AND be careful what you wish for OR alternative conspiracy theories

Hoosier Pundit has an interesting theory about the recent claims of push polling in the 9th District. The speculation first centered on Mike Sodrel and then moved tentatively to Travis Hankins. HP suggests the intriguing possibility that Baron Hill might be behind it, imagining that Hankins would be the easiest GOP'er to face in November.

A few thoughts on that:

1.) I don't think so, but if so, Baron should be careful what he wishes for. This wouldn't seem to be the year to mess with a "Tea Party" candidate. Todd Young is Tea Party-ish and Mike Sodrel would get a lot of tepid Tea Party votes. But a Hankins campaign would win the traditional GOP base as well as firing up the non-base Tea Party voters in the rural parts of the district who can vote either way.

2a.) On who Baron prefers to face, my bet would be on Sodrel. Politicians prefer known quantities and Baron knows what he gets with Sodrel. Baron also knows he's beaten Sodrel three times, including the last time when he treated Sodrel like the proverbial rented mule (beating him by 20%). This year, incumbents will be at a disadvantage-- and having a former incumbent running lessens or eliminates that angle. Sodrel has a propensity for running bad campaigns-- or so his supporters say-- so the likelihood of another "bad campaign" is quite strong.

2b.) If Baron thinks like HP, then he might predict that Hankins is not as much of a threat as Young-- the other "new blood". If so, Baron would be least excited about facing Young (and then narrowly, Hankins) in November.

3.) Running with HP's conspiratorial thinking, Sodrel's camp could have done the push polling. Have a few calls placed with negative references to himself and/or positive references to Hankins-- and voila, you damage the upstart Hankins campaign and avoid blame for the bulk of your push polling effort against Young. (A similar and more likely scenario would be to have a handful of Sodrel supporters make false claims about push polling calls.) All of this seems unlikely. But I know of at least one similar angle-- from Sodrel supporters toward Hankins supporters, involving me. So, only the shadow knows...


At April 29, 2010 at 10:05 AM , Blogger SCGOP said...

Young is Lugar Republicanish.

At April 29, 2010 at 12:19 PM , Blogger Eric Schansberg said...

Nice ad hominem. Do you have any evidence to present?

At April 29, 2010 at 3:07 PM , Blogger Unknown said...

I would give even money that Baron Hill is behind the push polling. Try checking with Jean Leising about what Baron did in 1998.
All the best

At April 30, 2010 at 10:08 AM , Blogger Unknown said...


He won't reply I am sure. I posted a response to his blog post once an he deleted it then turned off comments. Although he did pull out a couple parts of what I posted and replied to them. However he just threw out some Ad Hominem attacks against Todd there as well and never actually backed up any of his claims.

Looking at the dates of his postings I am pretty sure he is just a hired gun for the Sodrel camp, brought out when they are desperate enough.

And honestly, I think they are behind these push polls as well.

At April 30, 2010 at 11:01 AM , Blogger Eric Schansberg said...

Could be. If he's a Sodrel supporter, why would he make unfavorable references to Lugar?

Then again, if he's a Hankins supporter, I'd hope he wouldn't run with ad hominems.


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