Ron Paul for President

He's only the second federal candidate I've sent money to. (The other was Anne Northup in her first congressional campaign, when she beat Mike Ward in 1996.) In my mind, Paul is easily the best Presidential candidate. His popularity is at least long and deep if not wide; he's wildly popular with (at least) a small group of fervent supporters. With today's straw poll in Iowa, we'll have an inkling into whether he is more popular than the political pundits believe.

I doubt that the Iowa event is the best test ground for Paul-- either in terms of ideology or in terms of the money required to register and vote in the event. On the other hand, maybe it is just fine. Iowans are presumably ill-at-ease with the War and will listen respectfully to Paul's contrarian (but I believe correct) views on foreign policy. And they can't be all that happy about either of the last two administrations. Because Paul is so unique, I'd think he'd have an advantage in garnering votes from those who are not happy with more of the same.

The best news for Paul going into today is that no one expects anything from him today-- so he can only exceed expectations. Romney is expected to win handily; the only question seems to be margin of victory. While McCain and Giuliani decided not to make a good-faith (public) effort here, they will still garner some votes as two of the three front-runners. But another disappointing moment for McCain could spell the end of his campaign. Two social conservatives, Huckabee and Brownback, have made a strong effort and are apparently competing for second place-- or at least, doing significantly better than the other. I can't imagine Brownback doing anything, but I can still imagine Huckabee as a dark horse.

In any case, I want to thank Ron Paul for taking the time and energy to run-- at the minimum, to raise points that no one else can or will do.