Tuesday, September 4, 2007

3rd party candidates for President in 2008

The catalyst for this entry is an op-ed in last Tuesday's C-J by long-time Washington-insider columnist, David Broder. Broder had interviewed Chuck Hagel and wrote about the possibilities of him running as vice presidential candidate with Michael Bloomberg. Hagel must decide, soon, whether to run for a third term as Senator-- and Broder's "guess" is that he will bypass that option to run with Bloomberg.

Independent candidates are an interesting and perhaps cyclical aspect of American presidential politics. Perot garnered 19% in 1992; Anderson got 7% in 1980; and Wallace earned 14% in 1968. Is it "time" for another strong run from an outsider?

This year, one could imagine a range of potential independent candidates-- or at least issues that could prompt independent candidates to emerge. Bloomberg is the most potent example. But other narrower possibilities are easy to imagine as well-- since the two major parties will almost certainly nominate candidates who will be seen as abject failures on a number of issues. The most obvious is pro-life voters who would be distraught at the prospect of Guiliani as the Republican nominee. But weakness on illegal immigration, international trade, the War, fiscal profligacy, or just "the mess in Washington" could be enough to catapult multiple candidates into the field.

In any case, 2008 will end up as the longest, most painful Presidential campaign in our history-- or one of the most interesting...Stay tuned!

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