more from a political insider on Ron Paul...

Amazement, realism, and political analysis from Chuck Muth...

Confounding many skeptics, the Ron Paul campaign for the GOP presidential nomination raised over $4.2 million in one day yesterday - almost all from small-dollar online contributions. As the campaign noted in an email to supporters, the most successful one-day online fundraising effort was by John Kerry who raised $5.7 million "on the day he accepted the Democratic nomination." In context, this was, by far, a more impressive feat.

There's no way to spin this an anything but an extraordinary organizational success and show of support. However, this still does not propel Paul into the top tier of GOP candidates, despite claims to the contrary by some supporters. A campaign's viability is not determined by money alone, and Paul's hefty take yesterday still leaves him far behind the front-runners.

What this DOES do for the campaign, however, is give the candidate far more credibility than he has enjoyed from competitors, the GOP establishment and much of the mainstream media heretofore. And make no mistake, this outpouring of support for Ron Paul isn't because of his anti-war positions. No, Paul's support is derived from his support for and fealty to the Constitution, which he uses in articulating his anti-war positions.

Ron Paul has clearly mined that vein of Republican discontent which caused so many limited-government conservatives and libertarians to stay home or vote for third party candidates last November, resulting in Democrats regaining control of Congress. His support is real, significant...and growing.

And here's the very real danger for Republicans: If Paul, as expected, fails to obtain the GOP presidential nomination - and should the eventual GOP nominee fail to woo and attract Paul's growing legions of supporters with a believable pro-Constitution platform - don't be surprised to see enough Ron Paul voter support swing over to the Libertarian Party nominee on the general election ballot a year from now and throw the race into the Democrats' column.

All the press attention over the past few weeks has been on the possibility of Christian conservatives rallying behind a third-party candidate should the GOP nominate Rudy Giuliani. But the party's growing libertarian-leaning wing could have the same effect. For the GOP to have a chance of beating Hillary next November, its nominee is going to have to find a way to appeal to both its pro-life wing AND its constitutionalist wing. A pretty tall order.

By the way, Ron Paul is pro-life.

"Ron Paul has been fighting for the right to life from the beginning of his public career," writes Christian-conservative talk-show host and columnist Chuck Baldwin today. "Dr. Paul is rock-solid on pro-life. After all, he has helped over 4,000 women deliver their babies into the world in his obstetrics practice in Lake Jackson, Texas.

"Has he recently discovered these pro-life convictions?" Baldwin continues. "Not at all. Congressman Paul introduced the Human Life Amendment in Congress in his very first term of Congress, a couple of years after Roe v. Wade was first handed down."

Again, Paul's impressive fundraising effort yesterday doesn't catapult him into the top tier...yet. But if social conservatives and libertarian conservatives somewhere, somehow unite behind the man down the road, this could end up being an entirely different election.