Muth on post-Nevada presidential politics

From Chuck Muth, "The Mourning After"...

For those who said the early caucus in Nevada wouldn't hold any significance, note that it knocked GOP candidate Duncan Hunter out of the race and perhaps sealed Hillary Clinton's nomination on the Democrat side. Why? Because for Democrats, Nevada's caucus was all about Big Labor. And the biggest, most active labor union in the state - the Culinary Union - rolled the dice and sided with Barack Obama. And they crapped out. As Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post put it yesterday:

"The influential Las Vegas (Culinary) union came into today's caucuses with a lot on the line. A win for Obama would have affirmed the union as the most powerful force in Nevada Democratic politics. The loss, however, and the depth of the defeat along the Vegas Strip -- where Culinary was supposed to be at its most powerful -- is sure to stoke talk among Silver State politicos that the emperor has no clothes."

If the Culinary couldn't take out Hillary, it's highly unlikely anyone else can. Sure Barack will still likely win South Carolina's Democrat primary there this week, where half the voting population is black....But how many other states are that black-friendly. Indeed, many states will be more influenced by the Hispanic voter than the black voter - and Hillary chalked up the Hispanic vote in Nevada, as well.

Which brings us to yesterday's GOP South Carolina primary, where Fred Thompson's disappointing showing likely marks at least the beginning of the end of his run for the gold. Which prompted blogger Jeff Goldstein to write what I suspect a large and growing number of conservatives are similarly thinking today:

"I will not, will not, vote for John McCain. I will not, will not, vote for Mike Huckabee. . . . I *might* hold my nose and vote for Mitt Romney, but to be perfectly honest, I have no confidence in him... Which means that if Fred Thompson drops out of the race, I'm resigning myself to a Democratic presidency in 2008 - and to the years of pain that will follow should the Dems maintain control of both the Executive and Legislative branches of government. Who knows? Maybe they even get the courts, too."

Goldstein failed to note that Rudy Giuliani is still, barely, in the running for the GOP nomination and has placed all his eggs in the Florida basket next week. But for every fiscal conservative for whom Rudy might be considered an acceptable alternative to McCain or Huckabee, two social conservatives would bolt the reservation. So again, hello Democrat president.

Which brings us back to Mitt Romney as the only possible alternative to the bad prospect of John McCain as the GOP nominee, or the even worse prospect of Mike Huckabee.