the economy's health and the property tax debate

From Lesley Stedman-Weidenbener in Sunday's C-J...

A few weeks ago I wrote that a gloomy December forecast of state tax receipts might be a good thing for the legislative discussion about property-tax reduction.

That's because the General Assembly is contemplating plans that shift more costs from the relatively stable property tax -- which generally funds local government and schools -- to the somewhat volatile income and sales taxes that fund state government.

That would be easy to do when the economy is robust. A tighter economy likely leads to a more thoughtful debate.

...the philosophical discussion about whether it's a good idea to shift so many costs to a less stable tax is making way for a more practical discussion about whether the state can even afford its plan -- not just in the future, but now.

The change? Tax receipts are falling even further behind, and the national talk has turned to a possible recession.

In December, the revised forecast predicted that the state's revenues would be $230 million lower in the two-year budget cycle that ends June 30, 2009, than lawmakers had thought when they wrote the plan.

That's not much when viewed in light of the state's $26 billion, two-year budget. And the governor's budget officials and legislative fiscal leaders say it's manageable....

But in legislative circles, the revenue news is making more than a few folks jittery.