Saturday, November 22, 2008

"the war on recession"

The title of a piece from earlier this year by Lew Rockwell...

Unfortunately, this fruitless, damaging war began earlier this year-- with the attempt to use a "fiscal stimulus package" to prevent a recession. Good luck with that! How is borrowing money to spend money going to fix an economy? Moreover, it undermined confidence in the economy, devalued the dollar, helped to set the table for the problems we had this Fall, and bolstered the impression that the government can fix such problems (if done properly). Thanks for a whole lot nothing...

What does not make any sense is the strange article of faith that has descended over Washington, DC...All resources in the national treasury, every conceivable monetary manipulation, all efforts of every regulatory body must be marshaled toward the great national goal of re-pumping the economy, which must never ever be permitted to fall even a tiny bit

Welcome to the War on Recession, which is being pursued with the same vehemence and folly as the War on Terror, and will likely prove just as spectacularly destructive of its own aims as well as liberty itself....Let's think about the big picture. The economy was overinflated due to reckless monetary policy and government agencies treating critical sectors such as housing as a democratic right and thereby too big to fail. The trend dates back decades but the bubble became insanely large only within the last 5–10 years. Something had to give. And it turns out that this was just the beginning. All sectors were puffed up and inflated....

So what do we do in this case? There has to be a downward correction, but there's no reason to panic. A good correction is just what a recovery needs to get going....

So what could it possibly mean to claim that the economy must never be allowed to recess? I'm thinking here of similar claims.

"That drunk is sobering up. Quick, give him a shot of tequila!"...

The recession is a regrettable but inevitable backlash against a boom that was not justified by the fundamentals....There must be a correction. There is nothing the Fed or the Congress can do about it. It certainly shouldn't attempt to prevent it. To attempt to prevent the correction is like turning away from the skid: it only makes it worse.

All this nonsense about digging ourselves out of recession through government intervention began with the New Deal. Before then, government didn't do much at all about the downside of the business cycle. And guess what? Recessions were short and less-than lethal for economic health. Indeed, they were the essential foundations of future recovery. All that changed with FDR...

But here is the amazing fact. Not once has this strategy worked. Not in the New Deal. Not in the 1970s. Not in the 1980s. Not in the 1990s. Not once has government done anything to restore prosperity during a slump. What happens again and again is that government spends, the Fed inflates, the regulators punish, there is wailing and gnashing of teeth, and then, at some point, we hit bottom, and normalcy begins to return again. The most government can do is prolong the period at the bottom. Otherwise, it is just wasting resources....

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