Meth Math

The title of a little blurb in Reason by Katherine Mangu-Ward-- and another problem with the War on Drugs: the possibility of false-cause fallacy in policy prescriptions (no pun intended)...

In March, meth was back in the headlines, and this time the prognosis was cheerful:

-The nation’s largest drug testing company, Quest, reported that the share of job applicants and employees testing positive for meth fell 22% between 2006 and 2007.

-...the DEA issued a report highlighting a 31% decrease in the number of illegal meth lab seizures in the previous year. Drug czar John Walters boasted that restrictions on...pseudoephedrine and crackdowns at the Mexican border had reduced meth use...

There’s a significant problem with that theory: A closer look at data on drug use from several sources, including Quest, shows that meth consumption had been declining for years before the feds swung into action....