Wednesday, June 24, 2009

what will happen in Iran? (monopoly vs. competition revisited)

A little more reflection on an earlier post-- about competition vs. monopoly (power) in the religious and political settings of various countries....

The question: Will recent events in Iran parallel Tiananmen Square or the Berlin Wall?

The principle: Monopolies hold together better, preserving stasis, but are limited in their ability to hold themselves together-- especially in the face of information about the extent of oppression, how much better things could be, and so on.

We see this principle at work in domestic policy-- for example, with the erosion of the post office's monopoly power and the growth in homeschooling (in the face of inept govt schools, the labor cartel of the NEA, and the monopoly power of each).

Turning to the international arena...

In Berlin, the USSR, and the Eastern Bloc countries (starting with Poland), a strong monopoly was broken by revolution and information.

In China, a monopoly largely held-- although the government has allowed more competition and freedom, especially in more urban/westernized areas.

In Iran, a monopoly is being challenged-- both with respect to State and Religion.

What will happen? Can Islam moderate a la China's govt? Will Iran's State be broken through revolution or moderated through pressure? Stay tuned...


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