Wood on Bonds

Trace Wood, an old best friend from my high school days, is a Fantasy Baseball expert and has written two of the best pieces I've seen on Bonds and his increased home-run production.

Is He for Real? is a solid overview of the issues (as seen in 2002, but still completely relevant today). The essay includes some statistical analysis on Bonds changing somewhat from a ground-ball to a fly-ball hitter.

The analysis in "Chasing Ben" is unbelievably thorough, wrestling with the extent to which Bonds has changed with respect to his ability to make contact, the bats he's used, the ballparks in which he's played-- and then comparisons to other cases where a player's performance has changed in a similar manner.

Bonds' career divides into four phases-- the first three increasing in terms of HR production:
1986-1991 (3.3-6.4 per 100 AB's; average: 4.6 per 100 AB's)
1992-1998 (7.1-9.5 per 100 AB's; average: 7.7)
1999-2005 (9.6-12.1, not incl. the 15.3 in 2002; average: 11.8)
2006-2007 (7.1-8.2; average: 7.6)

It is common for players to be more productive in the middle/second phase of their career. What makes Bonds such an anomaly is the further increases in the third phase (1999-2005).

Bonds started to hit more home runs in his last year in Pittsburgh. Two things come quickly to mind. First, he had a strong incentive to focus on home runs in preparing for free agency once it became clear he would not remain with the Pirates. Second, it seems possible that San Fran had a better home run park than Pittsburgh. This is true for SF's first park, but not true of its newer park. So, again, the 1992-1998 phase makes sense from a number of angles, but the later phase is freakish.

How will Bonds be viewed in baseball history? As a phenomenal player with an asterisk. He may have the record, but like Maris and Aaron before him, he will be understood as great, but not as great of a home run hitter as Ruth.