the most recent polls in Iowa
From CNN.com...
Clinton suddenly commands a double-digit lead-- while the Republican race tightens to a statistical tie and Paul rises from 4% to 10%.
Clinton and Obama were neck-and-neck in last week’s American Research Group poll. But in the new survey, conducted December 20-23, she leads the Illinois senator by 15 percentage points, 34 to 19 percent. Obama is now in a statistical tie for second place with former North Carolina senator John Edwards, who has 20 percent of the vote.
According to the poll, Obama has lost some ground among male voters in Iowa: Last week, he led the field with 27 percent support, followed by 21 for Clinton and 19 for Edwards. This week, the leaders are Clinton and Edwards, with 28 and 27 percent support among Democratic men. Obama has 16 percent support, and Joe Biden has 11 percent.
As Hillary Clinton appears to be breaking away from the pack, the Republican race in Iowa may be tightening up. A week ago, an ARG poll placed Mike Huckabee over Mitt Romney by an 11-point margin among likely Republican caucus-goers, but the latest poll by the group puts the two back in a statistical tie, 23 to 21 percent. John McCain has 17 percent of the vote, Rudy Giuliani has 14 percent — and Ron Paul has 10 percent in the latest poll, up from 4 percent last week.
Like Obama, the poll indicates that Huckabee’s support among male voters in Iowa may be slipping. Last week, Huckabee had 31 percent support among Republican men; this week, he and Rudy Giuliani are tied at 20 percent. John McCain and Mitt Romney both have the support of 17 percent of the GOP’s likely male caucus goers.
posted by Eric Schansberg @ 4:50 PM
6 Comments
6 Comments:
I haven't been paying that much attention, so maybe I'm wrong. But it seems like CNN has been anxious to push the Clinton-inevitability story.
n an InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa, Edwards leads among (977) likely voters 30-26-24 over Clinton and Obama. Edwards is also the clear second choice winner, 42-29-28 over Clinton and Obama. This is the first poll to show Edwards solely in the lead in Iowa since July.
From another recent poll:
Among highly likely caucus goers (of which there are 633), though, the three are deadlocked: Obama 27, Edwards 26, Clinton 24. Edwards again wins second choice, 42-31-27 over Clinton and Obama. The poll was conducted Dec. 16-17 and has a margin of error of 3% for the likely voters section and 4% for the highly likely voters section.
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I don't think I've heard much of anything about Edwards from CNN. Then again, I don't watch it much, so maybe I just haven't tuned in at the right time.
Is ARG an arm of CNN? Or are you just saying that CNN would be eager to publish a poll like that?
The other interesting angle would go the other way: that candidates have been trying to keep expectations quelled-- so oddly, good news today makes bad news tomorrow more likely.
From a "sports" fan standpoint, I hope Edwards (and Obama) can be "successful" enough in Iowa to make things more interesting.
If the candidates in both major parties aren't all that good, at least they could make up for it by providing some drama!
Just saying CNN would be likely to talk about a poll like that. Political campaigns seem to develop narratives where political reporters seem to become eager to report facts that fall into the narrative and reluctant to report facts that do not. I'm not positing any grand conspiracy by any means. Just a natural tendency. (And, like I said, I haven't made any study of this, so I could well be my own personal bias causing me to notice "Hillary is running away with it" storylines more than the "It's anybody's race" storylines.
As a political junkie, I agree with you in hoping for a dramatic campaign. That may not be in my best interests as a citizen, necessarily, but you take what you can get.
Some close analysis of the ARG poll:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pollster_variation_in_iowa.php
Doug, thanks very much for posting this update and analysis!
I guess we'll soon see who's predictions are best!
Some more numbers out of Iowa -- 3 way tie:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/12/27/193826/76
From Strategic Vision
Today (12/18, 12/10, 12/2)
Obama 30 (30, 33, 32)
Clinton 29 (27, 25, 25)
Edwards 28 (27, 24, 25)
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