Ron > Rudy in NH?

Again, from this weekend's WSJ, excerpts from an op-ed piece by Andrew Cline, the editorial page editor of the New Hampshire Union Leader...

Cline anticipates a strong performance by Ron Paul-- even to the point of beating Giuliani.

Beyond Cline's speculation, this gets to another possibility emerging from Iowa and NH: what if a presumed top-tier candidate (like Giuliani) is beaten by a presumed second-tier candidate (like Paul)? Would that be devastating or just a blip?

Many Republican operatives in New Hampshire, even those affiliated with other campaigns, think Mr. Paul is headed for an impressive, double-digit performance. That he has been polling in the high single digits for months is discounted, because the polls may be missing the depth of his support.

Why? For starters, he appears to be drawing new voters. Polls that screen for "likely" voters might screen out many Paul supporters who haven't voted often, or at all, before....

There is another reason to discount the polls on Mr. Paul. The one thing that unites his supporters is a desire to be left alone, not only by government, but by irritating marketers and meddling pollsters, too. Mr. Paul's supporters might well be screening their calls and not-so-inadvertently screening out pollsters....

Mr. Chicoine and other Paul supporters say that, contrary to conventional wisdom, most of Mr. Paul's backers are Republicans, not independents. But everyone agrees that Mr. Paul draws an unusual mix of libertarians, fiscally conservative Democrats, conservative Republicans, home-schoolers, vegans, gambling aficionados, anti-abortion activists and others who want the government to butt out of some aspect of their lives.

But will they get out to vote on primary day?

"I've never seen a group of people that are this energetic about a candidate," Mr. Murphy said. "It's something else."

Now, if Paul can live up to Cline's expectations, he just needs to Howard-Dean-like post-game scream.