WSJ op-ed on opening day in presidential baseball

Again, from this weekend's WSJ, the editorialists they weigh in with their speculation about what various candidates "need" from Iowa...

First, a few thoughts on the timing-- as "both too early and too late"...

Iowa arrives too early this cycle in that it comes a full 10 months before the general election next November....That the Iowa home stretch is taking place this year when most families are preoccupied with the holidays is especially silly.

But Iowa comes late because the truncated nature of this primary season means the candidates have already been campaigning for more than a year....

Now, to the candidates...

This year the state's caucuses seem especially important to the Democrats. Barack Obama and John Edwards need a victory to show they can challenge the Hillary Clinton juggernaut. Mr. Edwards has invested heavily in the state, and if his message of "two Americas" can't win amid the liberals who dominate Iowa's Democratic caucus-goers, it's not going to win anywhere....

As for the Republicans, Iowa may do little more than knock out the minor players. The rise of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as the favorite of many social conservatives has complicated Mitt Romney's strategy of betting on early state victories to catapult him into the lead elsewhere. A second place finish would be a blow to Mr. Romney...

Iowa is also Fred Thompson's chance for a breakthrough....Both John McCain and Rudy Giuliani have downplayed Iowa, so their first big tests will come in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Thompson's emergence looks unlikely given the numbers. Then again, doing better than expected is often a PR victory. McCain is looking strong in NH, while Giuliani may finish well-down the list there (how big of a problem is that?)-- ironic given that it's a state in the northeast. Giuliani needs to survive through NH and begin to thrive in SC. That doesn't seem as likely to me as it does to far more-experienced pundits.