the (ironic) limits of political success on economic advancement

From Jason Riley in the WSJ, the negative/neutral side of what I said earlier.

I had said that Obama will probably continue to support a range of policies that harm African-Americans. Riley merely makes the argument that Obama's presidency will not help the economic lives of African-Americans. (I suppose one could make a series of indirect or non-economic arguments.)

But what might an Obama victory mean for African-Americans in particular? Should we expect his administration to play a major role in black group advancement?

For more than a century, black civic leaders have tangled over whether to pursue economic independence or focus their energies on integrating political, corporate and educational institutions. W.E.B. Du Bois, author of the groundbreaking 1903 treatise, "The Souls of Black Folk," argued for the latter, while his contemporary, Booker T. Washington, said "political activity alone" was not the answer. In addition, insisted Washington, "you must have property, industry, skill, economy, intelligence and character.

"Since the 1960s, the black civil-rights leadership has sided with Du Bois. Between 1970 and 2001, the number of black elected officials in the U.S. grew from fewer than 1,500 to more than 9,000. And while impressive socioeconomic progress has been made, wide black-white gaps remain in educational achievement, homeownership rates, labor-force participation, income levels and other measures.

Nor should we conclude that civil-rights laws are responsible for the black progress that has occurred. For example, up until the 1950s, and in an era of open and rampant racial discrimination, the jobless rate for blacks was much lower than today and similar to that of whites in the same age group. In fact, blacks had higher labor-force participation rates than whites in every Census taken between 1890 and 1950. And in the decades preceding the 1960s...there were sharp rises in black educational achievement, both absolutely and relative to whites.

Then, Riley turns to some of the research on the determinants (and non-determinants) of economic advancement.

The economist Thomas Sowell has spent decades researching racial and ethnic groups in the U.S. and abroad. And his findings -- in books like "Race and Culture: A World View," "Affirmative Action Around the World" and "Civil Rights: Rhetoric or Reality?" -- show that political activity generally has not been a factor in the rise of groups from poverty to prosperity.

Riley briefly surveys some of this evidence-- from minority groups in the U.S. to the worldwide data. And then he cites the Irish in the U.S. as another group that had political success but dragged in terms of economic success.

If elected, Mr. Obama may well turn out to be a competent president, even an admirable one. But history gives us no indication that his political success will translate into black upward mobility. And given Mr. Obama's liberal leanings, there's every reason to believe that current obstacles to black progress will remain in place....[If so], the only "change" that Mr. Obama would be bringing the Oval Office is the color of the person perpetrating bad policies.