one more cost of Iraq? Monroe County Republicans (cont'd)
I meant to blog on this yesterday, but forgot.
Scott Tibbs' discussion of Republican efforts at the local level in Bloomington reminded me of it. It'd be interesting to hear how this has changed over time.
Anyway, at the Federal level-- specifically, in the 9th District race, it's interesting that Sodrel's percentage of the vote fell so precipitously.
In 2002, Sodrel received 44% in Monroe Co. and Hill won by 4.5%.
In 2004, Sodrel received 39% in Monroe Co. and Hill won by 18.8%.
In 2006, Sodrel received 32% in Monroe Co. and Hill won by 30.9%.
In 2008, Sodrel received 28% in Monroe Co. and Hill won by 39.8%.
Why the decline--instead of general and continuing antipathy toward Sodrel?
I'm guessing that the #1 reason is the Republican policy in Iraq.
What are the other hypotheses (and evidences)?
posted by Eric Schansberg @ 11:42 AM
3 Comments
3 Comments:
Was Iraq even on the radar anywhere down there this year? If so, it was one of the few places in the world.
Yeah, Iraq is always an issue in Monroe County. Earlier this year, the City Council passed a resolution opposing using force against Iran.
There are regular anti-war rallies here - and some Democrats even used the war in Iraq in last year's city elections as a reason to vote against the GOP candidate for Mayor. (Who has openly opposed the Iraq war since 2003.)
Shawn's theory: Obama simply got more students/voters out to vote for him (plus persuading a few to switch). I'm guessing that in past years students may have voted at home instead of on campus, but since Indiana was a swing state this year, out of state IU students probably opted to vote in Indiana (rumor mill: some may have voted in multiple states :).
The R's in the congressional race have got about the same number of actual votes from Monroe county in each of the past 3 Presidential cycles.
Actual number of Sodrel votes in Monroe county in Presidential election years:
2008 13,167
2004 14,600
going back to 2000 when Monroe was in the 8th district
2000 13,062 for Hostettler
data from: http://www.in.gov/sos/elections/elections/index.html
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