Friday, March 12, 2010

Sodrel leading Hankins (who's leading Young) in the 9th District (in the 6th inning)

Poll numbers on the Hankins/Sodrel/Young battle in the 9th District GOP Congressional primary race (hat tip: HoosierAccess-- although he does not provide a link to the poll and I can't find it elsewhere on-line; UPDATE: another link that cites a source but still no link)...

Sodrel 46; Hankins 19; Young 13.

First question: are the numbers valid or inflating Sodrel? The numbers are (quite?) questionable, given Wilson's track record in the 9th-- which showed Sodrel down by 3% in 2008 when he got blown out by 20%.

Taking the numbers at face value...

The Young numbers are bad news for Young (of course) and a mixed bag for Hankins. It'd be easier for Hankins if Young was eroding more of Sodrel's base. Then again, Hankins as the #2 bolsters his candidacy among those looking for a Sodrel alternative.

Hankins should continue to close the gap-- by the nature of a grass-roots candidacy, especially with people paying more and more attention as we get closer.

The most interesting statistic: 52% of Sodrel supporters are "very conservative"-- meaning they are delusional (thinking Sodrel to be a fiscal conservative) or they don't yet know about Hankins as the candidate who much better lines up with their self-identification.

Finally, it's probably smart (at least in the short-run) for Sodrel to avoid debates with Hankins and Young. The problem: it's not at all principled, given Sodrel's stance on debates in previous campaigns. Then again, posing has been more important than principles for Sodrel since at least 2006-- on issues like fiscal conservatism, illegal immigration, and funding for Planned Parenthood.


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