Saturday, January 12, 2008

contrarianism in the primaries?

The latest polling in Michigan (hat tip: Drudge) shows Romney ahead or tied...

Is the fact that most Republicans are less-than-fully-satisfied with their choices (as I discussed earlier) leading to contrarian results-- where voters in one state support a candidate (and reduce support to other candidates) who have lost (or won) previously? In other words, since McCain won in NH, will Michigan not want to give him too much momentum and lean toward Romney instead? (And does that help explain why Hillary won in NH?)

1 Comments:

At January 15, 2008 at 5:36 PM , Blogger Bryce Raley said...

Early exit polls are proving you right. I love contrarians in politics and investing.

I believe Earl Nightingale once said something to the effect of
"If you see a 100 people walking one way and a few walking the other- follow the few and you'll never go wrong"

 

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