Tuesday, November 18, 2008

problems in your administation: inheriting vs. early-on vs. late

The problems of an administration are often beyond the control of the President-- and many of those problems are inherited from the previous administration. That said...

1.) Ideally, one inherits problems which can be fixed (or perceived as such).

2.) Next best, one has problems early in one's administration that can be fixed (or perceived as such).

3.) Worst, one can problems toward the end that color the next election.

Examples?

1.)
-Reagan inherited a multi-varied mess from Carter in 1980.
-Obama is inheriting a mess now.

2.)
-Reagan and Volcker dealt with high inflation, leading to the nasty recession (and double-digit unemployment) of the early 1980s. Those economic woes led to a beat-down in the 1982 midterm election, but with the economy cooking by 1984, Reagan crushed Mondale.
-How will things look in 2010 and 2012-- and how will this impact Obama and the Dems?

3.)
-Bush I coasted through the Berlin Wall and the Persian Gulf War, but a mild recession, a tax increase (vs. "read my lips"), Ross Perot and a poorly-run campaign allowed Clinton to beat him in 1992.
-Bush II had 9/11, but dealt with a self-imposed, difficult war in Iraq and then terrific economic problems at the end. The result: McCain is the only GOP'er with any sort of chance in 2008-- and even he is thrashed by Obama.

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